The English Premier League, lauded as the best league in Europe and which going into the quarter final stage of this season’s UEFA’s club competitions, was nailed on to claim one of the fifth place Champions League spots up for grabs next season.
The Opta computer gave England a 70.6 per cent chance of winning a two horse race with Germany (Italy already past the winning post, for one of the two extra Champions League places) and in five of the last six seasons, England would have accomplished such a mission.
Now with the quarter-finals of the three European competitions completed, the Opta computer isn’t saying the dream is over, but it reckons that the odds have plummeted to a one in a hundred chance.
Why does this matter?
Well, I live in hope that this Newcastle United run in could see us finish above Spurs (and Man Utd and Chelsea for that matter) and in fifth place. Our detractors will absolutely love it if we don’t qualify for next season’s Champions League and if we’re being honest, the riches on offer require a sustained run in this competition if we are to break out of the profit and sustainability straitjacket.
We know what went wrong in the week.
In the big cup, Manchester City succumbed to fourteen-time (soon to be fifteen-time anyone?) winners of the European Cup, losing on penalties to the Madridistas from the Santiago Bernabeu at the Emptihad Stadium. Meanwhile, Arsenal lost in Bavaria to a bang average Bayern outfit who boasted Saint Harry in their ranks. Oh, what irony that it was their nemesis from across north London who helped extinguish Arteta’s Champions League dream.
In the Europa League, there’ll be Scousers scrambling to obtain refunds on ferry and Dublin hotel bookings as Klopp’s European adventure ended abruptly in Bergamo, although in truth, the damage had been done at Anfield the week before, West Ham reject Gianluca Scamacca scoring twice. It’s a pity the Italian striker still wasn’t still plying his trade at the London Stadium, West Ham unable to score the two goals required to get them on level terms and then conceding late on against newly crowned German champions Bayer Leverkusen, who took the tie 3-1 on aggregate.
The Conference League proved more fertile ground for English teams in the week, Aston Villa forcing extra time and penalties with a late Matty Cash strike in Lille, before Emile Martinez avoided being sent off despite his second yellow card during the penalty shootout, to become the hero as Villa progressed to the semi-finals.
And it is because Aston Villa remain in the Conference League that the Opta computer stubbornly refuses to rule out that fifth Champions League place could still accrue to England.
Okay, odds of one percent are long ones, but it could happen. How?
The coefficient is basically an average. Points are awarded when clubs win or draw and also for progressing from the knockout stages. Points are added together and divided by the number of participating clubs from that country.
Going into the semi-finals, England’s coefficient is 17.375 compared to Germany’s 17.928, a difference of 0.553 points. Because England started the season with eight clubs competing across the three UEFA competitions, Villa would need to gain at least 4.424 points for England’s coefficient to draw level with that of Germany.
If Villa can beat their semi-final opponent, the Greek side Olympiakos, in both legs, that would give them four points. Qualifying for the European Conference League final would also earn the Villains an extra point. And, if Villa emulated West Ham’s success in the same competition last season and went on to lift the trophy, they would gain another couple of points, giving England an extra seven overall.
Job done. Except, for this cunning plan to work, at the same time Leverkusen, Munich and Dortmund would all need to perform very badly in their semi-finals against Roma, Real Madrid and PSG respectively.
In fact, even in circumstances where Villa maxed out and won their remaining three European ties, Germany would only need to add 0.322 points to their coefficient average, which given they started the campaign with seven club sides in Europe this season, means the Leverkusen, Munich and Dortmund trinity would need 2.254 points (three points in reality), a combination of either one win and a draw or three draws across the six legs.
Hopefully, this helps explain why that fifth place finish could still mean Champions League qualification for Newcastle United, whilst at the same time explaining why in reality, the Computer says no!
