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    Super Computer model rates Newcastle United chances of beating Aston Villa and relegation probability

    Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Wednesday’s match against Aston Villa.

    The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

    They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game against Villa.

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    Their computer model gives Aston Villa a 36% chance of a win, it is 27% for a draw and a 37% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

    Interesting to see that this computer model, has reacted to the Premier League currently playing matches in empty stadiums, by reducing the home advantage factor by 60% when generating their predictions. Pretty much every European league seeing considerably less home wins since football kicked off again.

    When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability (not surprisingly) at greater than 99% for Liverpool and the rest (including Man City now) nowhere, the scousers 20 points clear with only eight games remaining, despite only drawing at Everton.

    Also interesting to see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability chances of relegation:

    98% Norwich

    75% Villa

    70% Bournemouth

    26% Brighton

    34% West Ham

    18% Watford

    5% Brighton

    They now rate Newcastle United with a less than 1% chance of going down, Steve Bruce’s team 11 points clear of the relegation zone after the win over Sheffield United.


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