Palace like to keep things tight and have long produced some pretty dull games at Selhurst Park – only 12% of their home games this season have seen over 2.5 goals.
In contrast, Chelsea play a much more expansive style, scoring plenty but also often conceding. A whopping 81% of their away games have delivered three or more goals.
The Blues are certainly the form side having won six of their last seven in competitions, although they did go down to a late goal at West Ham last week when they produced an error-strewn defensive display. That will encourage the hosts.
Palace have lost three on the spin and while they have often competed with the best teams it is notable that they’ve not beaten anyone in the top half at Selhurst Park this season, losing at home to Liverpool, Man City, Leicester and Sheffield United.
You could plump for a few goals here given the way Chelsea are happy to open up – over 2.5 is available to back at 10/11 – but a big-priced correct-score fancy also has legs.
The Blues have won away games 5-2, 4-1, 4-2 and 3-2 this season with the first of those results coming at Wolves, another ground where goals have been hard to come by.
Chelsea have conceded two or more in nine of their 16 away games, including at Norwich, Bournemouth and West Ham – all sides below Palace in the table – so 33/1 about them winning 3-2 here may be worth a dabble.
The goalscorer market is also dangling potential value.
First of all, Willian looks big at 21/10 to score at any time.
He’s bagged six goals in his last seven games and is on penalties.
For Palace, Chelsea’s poor record defending set-pieces makes Gary Cahill a tempting prospect.
Admittedly he’s yet to score this season but he is a player Palace look to at set plays and the defender, who scored plenty during his days at Chelsea, has managed close to a shot a game so far in the campaign.
16/1 to score at any time may just be worth some loose change. Alternatively, 40/1 first scorer may appeal to those not expecting too many goals.